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- Patrick Mahomes needs to take some shots: Mahomes has become well known for his ability to take what a defense gives him, but the Eagles tend to excel when quarterbacks keep things underneath against them.
- Jalen Hurts needs to avoid sacks: While the Eagles’ offensive line is an elite unit, Hurts tends to invite pressure and create unnecessary hardship for himself.
Estimated Reading Time: 7 minutes
Be willing to attack downfield early
Over the past few seasons, Mahomes has often been taking what defenses give him. His average depth of target has dropped almost every year, and this season, his 6.9-yard average is the third lowest in the NFL. Because of that, Mahomes’ big-time throw percentage is also the lowest of his career (3.3%) and the sixth lowest in the NFL. All of that simply means the Chiefs aren’t pushing the ball down the field.
That plays right into what the Eagles’ defense wants opponents to do. They invite an offense to throw the ball underneath, forcing them to string together long drives. They’ve allowed an explosive pass (15-plus yards) on only 10.1% of plays, the best rate in the league. Philadelphia’s coverage unit also ensures that receivers gain little yardage after the catch. The defense’s 4.7 yards allowed after the catch per completion is the best in the NFL.
Before the 2023 campaign, Mahomes had never finished a season with a deep PFF passing grade (attempts over 20-plus yards) lower than 90.0. But his marks for the past two seasons fell below 81.0. If Mahomes and the Chiefs’ passing offense can generate explosive passing plays early by attacking the Eagles’ deep safeties, it could open up their run game and the intermediate level of the defense later in the game.
Make plays under pressure and convert on third and fourth downs
If the Eagles limit Mahomes to short completions, he’ll have to create magic on third and fourth downs. Philadelphia’s defense has faced the seventh-most third and fourth downs in the NFL this season, mostly due to a scheme that limits explosive plays and keeps everything underneath. The Chiefs offense, on the other hand, converted the most third and fourth downs by passing in the regular season.
Mahomes has consistently been incredible on the most important downs throughout his career. Since he became a starter in the NFL, his 92.8 PFF passing grade on third and fourth downs ranks first among quarterbacks.
The Eagles’ defense owns the second-highest team PFF pass-rushing grade (89.2) and the 10th-highest pressure rate in the NFL this season, meaning Mahomes will be under pressure and forced to move in the Super Bowl. It’s been a down year for him in terms of his playmaking ability in out-of-structure situations. His 67.3 grade under pressure is the second lowest of his career, and his grade when forced to move is a career low (69.3). Mahomes’ PFF grade when pressured still ranks seventh in the NFL, though, which speaks to how impressive his career has been.
If Mahomes can consistently convert in third- and fourth-down situations, it could be a long night for the Eagles’ defense.
Avoid sacks
Hurts is under pressure at the second-highest rate in the NFL and owns just a 41.1 PFF overall grade in those situtions this season, ranking ninth lowest. Yet, the Eagles’ offensive line has the sixth-highest pass-blocking grade. That’s because of how often Hurts invites his own pressure.
Hurts was charged with the fifth-most quarterback-faulted pressures and the third-most quarterback-faulted sacks and posted a career-high 23.2% pressure-to-sack ratio. The Chiefs’ defense has the fifth-ranked team PFF pass-rushing grade and the ninth-highest pressure percentage in the NFL this season, so Hurts could be under pressure often.
The Eagles’ offense relies on staying ahead of the chains and putting itself in third-and-short situations, where the unit can continue to use Saquon Barkley and a dominant rushing attack. For Philadelphia’s offense to be successful, Hurts will have to avoid drive-killing sacks by not inviting pressure and not making a bad play worse.
Trust wide receivers and get the ball out on time
Getting the ball out on time goes hand-in-hand with avoiding sacks and pressure. Jalen Hurts has the highest average time to throw in the NFL, at 3.21 seconds, which leads to inviting pressure and, eventually, throwing the ball away — something Hurts has done the second most among quarterbacks.
Hurts will have to play with better anticipation to get his receivers the ball. Both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are in the top 25 in PFF’s separation rate. The receivers are getting open; the ball just isn’t getting there as often as it should. Sometimes, a quarterback has to trust their receivers and anticipate them getting open rather than waiting to see it. Philadelphia, luckily, has one of the best receivers in the NFL, so it can be as simple as just targeting him often. When targeting Brown this season, Hurts has a 121.3 passer rating.
While it hasn’t been his best season, Hurts is coming off his best performance of the season, posting a 91.4 overall grade in the NFC Championship game, and we’ve already seen him perform at a high level in the Super Bowl. His 92.2 PFF overall grade in Super Bowl 57 — against the Chiefs — is the highest mark for a quarterback since Nick Foles’ 92.3 PFF overall grade in Super Bowl 52, a game Philadelphia fans remember well.
