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What’s going on here?
The US stock market, led by the S&P 500, has impressively reached its 57th record high in 2024, surging nearly 28% this year.
What does this mean?
This rally showcases a robust US economy, driven by expected interest rate cuts and supportive government policies like tax relief and deregulation. The S&P 500 has climbed continuously without a 10% drop for over 13 months – the longest streak in three years, per BofA Global Research. The market’s momentum is compared to a ‘freight train’ by Interactive Brokers, with strategists recommending seizing the opportunity. Still, discretion is advised: soaring price-to-book ratios, boosted by bitcoin crossing $100,000, suggest a bubble. The Consumer Confidence Index is optimistic, yet often seen as a reverse indicator. The index trades at 22.6 times forward earnings, and any sentiment shift could prompt corrections, especially with geopolitical risks like tariff threats looming.
Why should I care?
For markets: Riding the bull, but watching the horns.
Investors should note the market’s resilience reflected in the low Cboe Volatility Index, indicating ongoing calm. December is traditionally strong for the S&P 500, averaging a 1.6% gain. Yet, it’s crucial to be vigilant for reversals due to high valuations or geopolitical shifts, like tariff threats.
The bigger picture: Treading high waves with caution.
While current economic policies suggest growth, overvaluation concerns urge caution. RBC warns that the S&P 500’s high forward earnings multiples might trigger a correction. Global trade factors could affect domestic growth, reminding us to stay alert to changes in global economic dynamics while enjoying the bull market.
