Top NFL matchups to target for Week 14 betting

Over the years, PFF data scientists have conducted extensive studies to better understand and predict player performance. While many of these foundational works continue to shape discussions and influence analysis, the focus here is on identifying how those insights apply to specific weekly matchups and uncovering opportunities the betting market may have overlooked.

Some bets will align with traditional markets, while others will explore more niche options to ensure we leverage the most suitable markets for a given thesis or angle.

Vikings QB Sam Darnold takes advantage of the Falcons’ weak pass rush

In our PFF study on quarterback traits, we highlighted how a quarterback’s style of play significantly affects their sensitivity to their surroundings and environment. Players like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, who excel at creating out of structure, are far less dependent on favorable circumstances compared to quarterbacks like Jared Goff, who tend to struggle when plays break down.

One way to quantify this phenomenon is by examining how quarterbacks perform when a play is disrupted, particularly under disruption pressure — pressure that prevents a play from ever fully developing. This metric offers valuable insight into a quarterback’s ability to handle adversity and maintain efficiency when their environment becomes less predictable.