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- Can the Chiefs stop the Saquon Barkley train? His 10 touchdown runs of 20-plus yards (including the postseason) are more than twice as many as any running back this year — and the most since PFF began charting in 2006.
- Patrick Mahomes has upped his scrambling in the postseason: Through two playoff games, Mahomes has scrambled on a higher percentage of his dropbacks than in any other playoff run over his career.
Estimated Reading Time: 11 minutes
The week off between the AFC and NFC Championship games and the Super Bowl provides an opportunity to break down the matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs from every angle.
This is a first pass at highlighting some of the tendencies and key matchups that will help determine whether the Chiefs can secure the first three-peat in NFL history or the Eagles can get one back after losing in the Super Bowl to Kansas City two years ago.
Can Jalen Hurts get the ball out quickly against Steve Spagnuolo’s blitz?
It seems the Chiefs under Steve Spagnuolo have blitzed at one of the highest rates in the NFL, but that’s not necessarily true. This season, Kansas City’s 34% pass blitz rate ranks 13th out of 32 qualifying defenses (including postseason).
Kansas City has been successful when sending extra rushers, though. The Chiefs rank eighth in expected points allowed per play on dropbacks when they blitz, and they place second in the same metric since 2019, when Spagnuolo took over as defensive coordinator. They do an excellent job of creating unblocked pass-rushers when they blitz.
Highest Rate of Unblocked Pressure on Blitzes (since 2019)
| Team | Unblocked Pressure Rate on Blitzes |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 24.4% |
| Cleveland Browns | 20.8% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 20.5% |
While Hurts has some mobility, he doesn’t handle unblocked pressure well. The Eagles are averaging just 1.1 yards per dropback against unblocked pressure this season (fourth lowest in the NFL).
One way Kansas City has had success blitzing is by sending numbers opposite the side that Chris Jones lines up on to force the offensive line to make a decision: slide to Jones and leave a potential free runner on the overloaded side, or leave the Chiefs’ best pass-rusher in a one-on-one situation — where he wins at one of the highest rates in the league.
Hurts has recorded just a 65.5 PFF passing grade against the blitz this season (23rd out of 32 qualifying quarterbacks) with a 2.91-second average time to throw (tied for third highest). Philadelphia has a strong claim to the best offensive line in the NFL, but Hurts’ propensity to hold onto the football has resulted in a high sack count, particularly against the blitz. His 12% sack rate against the blitz ranks third highest among qualifying quarterbacks this season.
The Eagles offense, as a whole, has been more efficient when Hurts is getting the ball out in rhythm. Philadelphia averages 6.8 yards per dropback when the ball is released in less than 3 seconds (seventh), compared to 5.4 yards per dropback with a time to throw of 3 seconds or longer (20th). Staying out of obvious passing situations and getting the ball out in rhythm will be key to Philadelphia winning this rematch against Kansas City.
The Chiefs can’t let Saquon Barkley get through the line of scrimmage untouched
Barkley’s spectacular season is a combination of great blocking (2.5 yards before contact per rush, highest among running backs this season) and rare home-run hitting ability.
Saquon Barkley: 2024 PFF Game Grades
We’ve heard about teams trying to stop Derrick Henry early in plays before he picks up a head of steam; the same holds true for Barkley. He averages just 3.1 yards per carry when contacted within 2 yards of the line of scrimmage (eighth among 36 running backs with 100 such carries), but that number balloons to 13.0 yards per carry when he gets three or more rushing yards before contact (second behind only Henry this season among 19 running backs with 50-plus such carries).
Barkley sprinting through the line of scrimmage and getting to the second and third level of a defense means there’s a good chance he will destroy a would-be tackler’s angle and make a game-changing play. His 10 touchdown runs of 20-plus yards (including the postseason) are more than twice as many as any running back this year — and the most since PFF began charting in 2006.
The Chiefs’ 2024 regular-season run-defense unit was the franchise’s best since Steve Spagnuolo took over as defensive coordinator. They’re typically a defense that plays with lighter boxes and devotes more resources to defending the pass, but Kansas City’s 3.8 yards allowed per carry to running backs ranked second in the NFL.
Chiefs’ Defense: Yards Allowed per Carry to Opposing Running Backs (since 2019)
| Year | YPC Allowed to RBs (Rank out of 32) |
| 2024 | 3.8 (2nd) |
| 2023 | 4.6 (28th) |
| 2022 | 4.3 (15th) |
| 2021 | 4.7 (30th) |
| 2020 | 4.5 (19th) |
| 2019 | 4.9 (28th) |
A lot of that success came via a top-five missed tackle rate on runs (fourth lowest) and limited yardage after contact. The Chiefs have struggled more against inside zone (4.3 yards per play allowed, 21st) than other run concepts (3.6 yards per play allowed, sixth best). The Eagles are one of the bigger inside-zone rushing offenses in the NFL, with that concept accounting for 30% of their total runs (fourth highest).
That yards per carry allowed to running backs number has increased to 4.9 yards in the postseason, with both Joe Mixon and James Cook finding some success against the Chiefs’ defense on the ground. It won’t get any easier this week against Barkley and a dominant offensive line.
A.J. Brown is the Eagles’ go-to target against man coverage
Brown rebounded from a quiet start to the postseason with six receptions for 96 yards and a touchdown in the NFC Championship game against the Washington Commanders. A large chunk of that production (four receptions for 62 yards and a touchdown) came when the Commanders were in man coverage, which is a trend we’ve seen all season for Brown.
The star wideout ranks highly in several metrics against man coverage in 2024, including target rate (38.4%, second), receiving yards per route run (4.06, highest) and PFF receiving grade (92.6, highest).
The Chiefs ranked 10th in man coverage usage during the regular season (30.5%), but that number has come down slightly to 29.5% in the postseason through two games.
The Super Bowl could feature a best-on-best matchup in Brown against Trent McDuffie when the Chiefs are in man coverage (or match zone), but the Chiefs haven’t deployed McDuffie in the same way they used L’Jarius Sneed for much of the season. McDuffie did line up across from Nico Collins on 26 of 41 coverage snaps in the divisional round, giving up two receptions for 42 yards with two forced incompletions on those snaps.
The Chiefs also lead the NFL in Cover 1 Double and Bracket coverage snaps, so they may give Brown a healthy portion of those looks to try to reduce any true one-on-one opportunities. Still, Philadelphia needs to take advantage of when he is singled up, particularly against anyone other than McDuffie.
Patrick Mahomes will battle the clock against the Eagles’ pass rush
This regular season was the first in Patrick Mahomes’ career where he took 30-plus sacks (36). Typically, he is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL at mitigating pressure and avoiding negative plays, but the Chiefs’ offensive tackle issues — including a below-average season from Jawaan Taylor on the right side and a rotating door at left tackle — left Mahomes looking more human in the pocket.
Wide receiver Hollywood Brown‘s return to the offense has created more quick passing opportunities, and Mahomes has done well to find open receivers early on plays. Since Brown returned in Week 16, Mahomes’ average time to throw has dropped from 2.82 seconds through Week 15 (16th fastest) to 2.65 seconds (sixth fastest).
Philadelphia has fielded one of the NFL’s best pass rushes this season, ranking second in team PFF pass-rush grade, behind only the Pittsburgh Steelers. If the Eagles can force Mahomes to hold onto the football, they should have an upper hand against an offensive line with shuffled parts. Joe Thuney has graded nearly 20 points lower at left tackle than at left guard, with his replacement, Mike Caliendo, earning just a 47.8 PFF overall grade at left guard this season.
But we’ve seen Kansas City work around those issues in recent weeks, including in a game against the Steelers late in the season, against whom Mahomes put up 320 passing yards and a 127.1 passer rating. Minimizing the time that Josh Sweat and Nolan Smith have to work against a shaky tackle unit and Jalen Carter has to work inside against Caliendo will be one of the Chiefs’ keys to the game.
Mahomes’ patented late-play magic has largely dried up this season. Kansas City ranked first, by a wide margin, in expected points added per play on dropbacks of 3-plus seconds from 2018 through 2023. The offense ranks 10th in the same metric on those plays this season.
Can the Eagles force empty plays on Kansas City’s RPOs?
Kansas City ranked second in RPO rate during the regular season (16.7%), behind only the Green Bay Packers. That number is up to 23.7% in the postseason, as it’s become a core component of the Chiefs’ early-down game plan.
Lowest Success Rate (+EPA %) Allowed on RPOs (2024)
| Defense | Success Rate Allowed on RPOs |
| Denver Broncos | 32% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 38% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 38% |
| Green Bay Packers | 39% |
The Eagles have been one of the best defenses in the NFL against RPOs this season, but the numbers diverge some when examining the run-pass splits on RPOs. Philadelphia has allowed a 43% success rate on RPO passes (15th). The league-average pass rate on RPOs is 25%, but Kansas City sits at 30.4% (sixth highest). We saw the Chiefs have success early in the AFC Championship game against the Buffalo Bills on RPOs targeting the middle of the field.
Though the Eagles have given up more downfield opportunities thus far in the postseason compared to their regular-season numbers, their defense is still difficult to attack over the top. The Chiefs will likely need to methodically move the ball downfield, and RPOs will be a big part of that. The hope for Kansas City is that their receivers can break off several quick slants over the middle into larger chunk plays after the catch.
Patrick Mahomes’ scramble rate has increased in the postseason
Through two playoff games, Mahomes has scrambled on a higher percentage of his dropbacks than in any other playoff run over his career.
Patrick Mahomes: Scramble Rates by Year (Regular Season vs. Postseason)
| Year | Reg. Season Scramble % | Postseason Scramble % |
| 2024 | 5.6% | 14.9% |
| 2023 | 7.5% | 7.7% |
| 2022 | 6.4% | 8.0% |
| 2021 | 6.5% | 8.9% |
| 2020 | 6.4% | 4.0% |
| 2019 | 4.6% | 11.2% |
| 2018 | 4.5% | 3.6% |
We typically see Mahomes’ scramble rate increase in the playoffs (every year except 2018 and 2020), but that jump has been even more pronounced over the past two weeks, with a scramble (rushing attempt) coming on nearly 15% of his dropbacks.
His legs were a big part of the Chiefs’ AFC Championship game win over the Bills, against whom he recorded four first-down conversions or touchdowns on six scrambles. The Chiefs don’t use Mahomes like the Eagles use Jalen Hurts or the Bills use Josh Allen in short-yardage situations. But that ability to move the chains with his legs on scrambles is something Mahomes has always done at an elite level. He is the only quarterback in the NFL with 100-plus scramble runs since 2018 (out of 19 quarterbacks) to convert more than 50% of those runs into a new set of downs or a touchdown (51%).
In his prior Super Bowl matchup against the Eagles, Mahomes scrambled four times for 34 yards and three first downs. Philadelphia has allowed 318 rushing yards on scrambles to opposing quarterbacks this season (22nd) — a number that wasn’t helped by three matchups against Jayden Daniels. They rank roughly in the middle of the pack in both rushing yards per attempt allowed (7.4, 13th) and conversion rate allowed (39%, 12th) on scrambles in 2024.
Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s primary goal in this game will be to force Mahomes to hold onto the football to let his pass rush get home without opening up lanes for Mahomes as a runner, particularly when he moves up in the pocket — which he has done more than any other quarterback in the NFL this season.
