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Stocks were lower at the close but hovered around all-time highs ahead of Jobs Friday, as investors remain confident the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at a measured pace amid still-solid economic growth. Bitcoin reflected a broader “risk on” mood, breaking the $100,000 barrier in anticipation of a friendlier U.S. regulatory environment.
The world’s No. 1 cryptocurrency – which trades 24 hours a day, seven days a week – was changing hands at $99,206 as of 4 pm Eastern time on Thursday after reaching as high as $103,587 during the previous 24 hours.
Crypto investors are encouraged by President-elect Donald Trump’s announcement that he will nominate Paul Atkins to replace Gary Gensler as chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). According to Trump, Atkins “recognizes Digital Assets and other innovations are crucial to Make America greater than before.” Atkins, who served as an SEC commissioner from 2002 to 2008, is co-chair of the Token Alliance, a project of the Chamber for Digital Commerce.
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“We remain convinced $100,000 is not the final milestone,” writes Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani, who forecast “a cycle-high of $200,000 in late 2025” but also emphasized that “our conviction in bitcoin is beyond cyclical gyrations.”
Chhugani’s forecast is based on an expectation for “bitcoin to emerge as the new-age premier ‘store of value’ asset eventually replacing gold over the next decade and becoming a permanent part of institutional multi-asset allocation and a standard for corporate treasury management.”
Data compiled by Chhugani shows that 10 global asset managers oversaw approximately $100 billion invested in bitcoin spot ETFs within 228 days of their launch. That makes bitcoin and cryptocurrency ETFs the fastest-growing category of exchange-traded funds “ever,” according to Chhugani.
As for old-school equity markets, the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.2% to 19,700, the S&P 500 shed 0.2% to 6,075, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.6% to 44,765.
Stocks on the move
Walt Disney (DIS) stock was down 0.4% despite the media and entertainment conglomerate announcing a 33% increase to its dividend.
Noting that Disney is “operating from a renewed position of strength,” CEO Bob Iger said management will continue “to invest for the future and drive sustained growth through Disney’s world-class portfolio of assets.”
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) weighed even more heavily on the Dow, declining 5.2% a day after the CEO of its health insurance unit was shot and killed outside the hotel where the company was hosting its Investor Day conference.
UnitedHealthcare is the biggest health insurer in the U.S. with forecast revenue of $280 billion for 2024. Authorities continue to search for the shooter.
MicroStrategy (MSTR), meanwhile, was down 4.8% despite bitcoin’s major milestone. MicroStrategy, an enterprise software company, holds more than 401,100 BTC with a market value as of Thursday of more than $40 billion on its balance sheet.
As Chhugani noted in October, “Since [the] adoption of its Bitcoin Strategy in August 2020, MSTR’s stock is up roughly 13 times, outperforming bitcoin, gold, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and small-cap software.”
Coinbase Global (COIN) stock also ended the day lower, falling 3.1% even as cryptocurrency prices continue to rally on new investor interest and expectations of wider adoption.
Transaction volume on COIN’s trading platform continues to rise with bitcoin’s popularity, and it also holds 9,363 BTC on its balance sheet.
The employment situation
Initial jobless claims came in at a seasonally adjusted 224,000 for the week ending November 30, an increase of 9,000 from the prior week’s revised level, according to the Department of Labor.
“Jobless claims and job cuts were both a little higher than expected, but still moderate,” says E*Trade Managing Director Chris Larkin. “We’ll get a fuller picture from tomorrow’s monthly jobs report, but for now, the story continues to be a labor market that occasionally appears to bend, but avoids breaking.”
According to FactSet, the consensus forecast is 215,000 new jobs in November and an unemployment rate of 4.1%. The U.S. economy created 12,000 new jobs in October, as hiring was negatively impacted by hurricanes Helene and Milton as well as two major labor strikes.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its report on the next jobs report tomorrow at 8:30 am Eastern time. “We had a really low number in October … so we’re expecting a big recovery,” says Interactive Brokers Senior Economist José Torres. “Overall, the economy is in good shape.”
The CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows a 71.8% probability the Fed will trim the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points following the December 17-18 FOMC meeting. (A basis point equals 0.01%.)
