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Homebuyers hold out for interest rate relief
For the first time in six weeks, mortgage rates are leveling off.
Fox – Seattle
After a year of high interest rates, many homeowners and homebuyers are wondering what the market will look like in 2025.
Realtor.com, one of the top real estate listing websites in the United States, released its predictions for how the housing market will look in 2025.
It doesn’t look like mortgage rates will return to the pre-pandemic 4% average any time soon. Thus, it is possible we will see similar trends to 2024 in a lack of homes for sale and home buyers, but that’s not what the organization is predicting for Tennessee and most of the South.
Here’s what Tennesseans can expect in 2025 from the real estate market.
Are housing prices in 2025 expected to increase or decrease?
The organization is predicting that home prices will grow about 3.7% in 2025 as they are predicting mortgage rates to be slightly lower than in 2024 with an average monthly rate of 6.3%.
“Mortgage rates are expected to keep mortgage payments essentially unchanged in 2025 despite continued home price growth,” the analysis wrote.
It’s likely that home sellers will still have the advantage over home buyers in 2025 with limited inventory and strong demands in high traffic areas. However, high interest rates could lead to fewer buyers being able to afford homes.
Buyers should expect a less competitive market than in past years, but it will be one that is still costly from high mortgage rates and home prices.
Will there be more homes sold in 2025 than in 2024?
Homeownership rate is expected to drop by 0.3% between 2024 and 2025 from 65.6% to 65.3%. Despite this, existing home sales are expected to increase 1.5% to 4.07 million. The inventory of existing homes for sale is also expected to be 11.7% higher in 2025 than in 2024.
Much of home buying and selling depends on mortgage rates as seen in September 2024. During this time, mortgage rates dropped to 6.08%. The following month brought the largest number of active homes for sale in the U.S. housing market since December 2019, according to Realtor.com.
What will the Tennessee housing market look like in 2025?
Realtor.com broke its predictions down into metro areas. In last year’s analysis for Tennessee, there were losses in sales growth from 2023 to 2024, but for the 2025 year-over-year stats, there were only increases in sales price. Similarly, price growth is on the rise across the state’s metropolitan areas with a minimum increase of 6.3%.
| Metro | 2025 Sales Growth y/y | 2025 Price Growth y/y |
| Chattanooga | 2.2% | 6.3% |
| Knoxville | 3.7% | 8.3% |
| Memphis | 8.3% | 10.5% |
| Nashville | 4.5% | 8.3% |
What will the rental market look like in 2025?
New multifamily units are being built at an increased rate which pushed the rental vacancy up to 6.9% in 2024, but this doesn’t mean prices on rentals will come down either. The median asking rent in 2025 is expected to be 0.1% lower than in 2024, indicating that affordability will continue to be a challenge for many.
The organization is predicting the South’s lower-cost housing will continue to attract people in 2025 with the lack of change in rental prices. It is predicted the South will continue to see a 1.5% growth in rental stocks, the highest of any regional market.
What are the predictions for first-time homebuyers in 2025?
Unfortunately for first time home buyers, 2025 may not be your year as mortgage rates are not expected to change much next year. In 2024, there was an average mortgage rate of 6.7% for the year, and Realtor.com is predicting a 6.3% average rate in 2025.
In 2024, first-time homebuyers were a record low share of homebuyers, facing high costs for buying relative to renting, historically high home equity among repeat buyers, and a pickup in investor market share.
As the homeownership rate is expected to drop a little, it may not be the year to buy a first home for many.
