PFF Grades and Data: Everything you need to know for the AFC, NFC championship games

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Ahead of the conference championship games, our media team has dived deep into the numbers to deliver key insights for every NFL matchup, highlighting the hidden storylines and standout performances that shape each game.

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WAS@PHI | BUF@KC

Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles

QB Jayden Daniels is thriving under pressure

Washington’s offense rides on the shoulders of Jayden Daniels, whose stellar play has continued to elevate the team. The rookie quarterback has been phenomenal under pressure, earning an elite 97.0 overall grade during this playoff run — the highest for any quarterback in a single postseason since 2006.

It’s not just Daniels’ mobility that sets him apart, as his 92.8 passing grade under pressure is also the best of any quarterback in the playoffs over that same span.

Of Jayden Daniels’ 28 pressured dropbacks this postseason, he’s been sacked just once. And while his scrambling ability is a vital part of his game, Daniels has also excelled through the air under pressure, completing 14 of his 21 pass attempts for 203 yards — the highest passing total under pressure heading into the conference championship games.

How Daniels has fared against the Eagles this season

Philadelphia’s defense made life difficult for Jayden Daniels in their Week 11 matchup, pressuring him on 11 dropbacks. Daniels completed 4-of-6 passes for 59 yards but threw an interception and took three sacks. He managed just one rushing scramble under pressure in that game. However, the rematch in Week 16 told a very different story.

The Eagles pressured Daniels on 19 of his 46 dropbacks in Week 16, but they recorded only one sack while allowing him to scramble five times for 48 yards. The Commanders’ rookie shined under pressure, completing 6-of-13 passes for 117 yards and three touchdowns. Notably, the 117 passing yards under pressure were the most allowed by the Eagles in a single game all season.

So, Vic Fangio’s defensive unit could face a significant challenge this weekend, even when managing to generate pressure against Jayden Daniels and the Commanders’ offense. This could prove unusual for an Eagles defense that excelled during the regular season, producing pressure at the eighth-highest rate in the league (36.5%).

The Commanders will have to stop the run

No team ran the ball on first down more often than the Eagles during the regular season, doing so at a 64% rate. They’ve leaned into this tendency even further in the postseason, running on 71% of first downs. The Commanders’ defense will need to commit to stopping the run early, as forcing Philadelphia into third-and-long situations could create significant challenges for their offense. The Eagles have converted just one of 11 third downs with seven or more yards to go this postseason, with a 9% conversion rate that ranks as the lowest among all playoff teams.

To force long conversions on critical downs, Washington will likely stick with their aggressive strategy of sending early-down run blitzes. During the regular season, the Commanders executed 101 run blitzes on first and second down combined, tied for the second-most in the NFL. Their 51 run blitzes on first down alone ranked fifth overall. In the postseason, Washington leads all teams with 13 run blitzes on run downs, a key factor in limiting Saquon Barkley. The Eagles’ star running back has faced 10 run blitzes in the playoffs, gaining just 21 yards and picking up only one first down in those situations.

BUFFALO BILLS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

The Bills’ ground game is shining

The Bills’ ground game has been a cornerstone of their postseason success, particularly impressive given the quality of their opponents. Despite facing teams that ranked first and fourth in EPA allowed per run play during the regular season, Buffalo leads all playoff teams with a 57% run play rate and ranks second with a 46% success rate on run plays.

How the Bills’ ground game fared against the Chiefs in Week 11

While they found some success running the ball in their Week 11 matchup with the Chiefs, much of it came from Josh Allen’s improvisation. In that game, the Bills gained 45 yards on five scrambles (9.0 yards per carry) compared to just 59 yards on 26 designed runs (2.3 yards per carry).

A significant reason for Josh Allen’s frequent scrambles against the Chiefs was the relentless pressure he faced. In their Week 11 matchup, Allen was pressured on a season-high 19 dropbacks but handled it impressively, taking no sacks, averaging 8.3 yards per dropback and accounting for two total touchdowns.

That game marked one of only two instances all season where the Chiefs failed to record a sack. However, they are entering this week off a dominant performance, having posted a season-best eight sacks against the Texans.

We could see some fireworks on crossing routes

This matchup could be defined by explosive plays on crossing routes. Both offenses lean heavily on this concept, with Josh Allen ranking fifth in crossing route attempts (64) and Patrick Mahomes tied for ninth (56) this season. Defensively, both teams have struggled to contain these plays. The Bills have allowed an explosive pass (15-plus yards) on a league-high 38.8% of crossing routes faced, while the Chiefs aren’t far behind, giving up an explosive play on 34.1% of such attempts, the NFL’s fifth-worst mark.

The Chiefs need one more big game out of Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce delivered a vintage playoff performance against the Texans, racking up a season-best 117 receiving yards and earning a stellar 91.1 PFF grade. Historically, he has been a nightmare for the Bills, playing a pivotal role in Kansas City’s 3-0 record against them during the Mahomes era. Over those three matchups, Kelce has averaged 8.7 catches, 96 yards and 1.7 touchdowns per game. Including the regular season, no player has surpassed Kelce’s eight receiving touchdowns and 40 total receiving conversions against Buffalo since 2018.

However, the Bills managed to neutralize him in their Week 11 meeting this season, holding Kelce to just two catches for 8 yards. Linebacker Terrel Bernard played a key role in that effort, allowing zero catches and even snagging an interception in his seven matchups against Kelce during that game.

The Chiefs’ pass-protection issues

Joe Thuney has faced a significant challenge transitioning from left guard to left tackle to protect Patrick Mahomes’ blind side. While he has allowed just one sack at left tackle—compared to 11 given up by the rest of Kansas City’s left tackles this season—his 55.8 pass-blocking grade at the position is a sharp decline from his stellar 90.4 grade at left guard. Meanwhile, replacement left guard Mike Caliendo has struggled even more, earning a 46.0 pass-blocking grade.

Thuney is set to face a tough test against Greg Rousseau, who led the Bills with six pressures in their Week 11 matchup against the Chiefs. Rousseau’s performance that game contributed to his career-high 63 total pressures this season, making him a significant factor in Buffalo’s pass rush.