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I’ve been putting together notes for every game that Judah Fortgang and I touch on during the betting episode of the PFF NFL Show each week, and I’ve since extended that to game-by-game betting notes for the two Saturday games this week.
The idea is to put my research and thoughts onto paper in a quick-hitting, bulleted format to help myself work through what bets I want to place each week. Hopefully, you’re able to get similar value from this article as you work through your decision-making process.
Each game will include data-driven and contextual notes for both sides of the ball with an “Angles I Like” summary at the end, which quickly summarizes how I’m most likely to bet the game from a spreads, totals and player props perspective.
CLEVELAND BROWNS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS (RAVENS -19.5, 41.5 TOTAL)
- This is as big a spread as you’ll see in the NFL, but there’s plenty of reason for it. The Ravens have a division title to play for and an offense that has shredded two quality defenses in back-to-back weeks in Houston and Pittsburgh.
- The Browns’ offense has looked listless with Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback. Cleveland is averaging just 3.5 yards per play with a 35% success rate with him on the field in 2024 — both of which would be the worst marks in the NFL for the full season by a decent margin.
