NFL Week 17 Betting Notebook: Saturday

I’ve been putting together notes for every game that Judah Fortgang and I touch on during the betting episode of the PFF NFL Show each week, and I’ve since extended that to game-by-game betting notes for the full slate of Sunday games.  

The idea is to put my research and thoughts onto paper in a quick-hitting, bulleted format to help myself work through what bets I want to place each week. Hopefully, you’re able to get similar value from this article as you work through your decision-making process. 

Each game will include data-driven and contextual notes for both sides of the ball with an “Angles I Like” summary at the end, which quickly summarizes how I’m most likely to bet the game from a spreads, totals and player props perspective.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (CHARGERS -4.5, 43.5 TOTAL)

• The Patriots have blitzed on 37% of their pass-defense snaps this season (sixth-highest rate in NFL), but they’re still a bottom-five defense in pressure rate.
  • A team that blitzes often without generating pressure tends to be a good matchup for most quarterbacks, but that’s particularly true for Justin Herbert, who has excelled both against the blitz and from a clean pocket.
    • Justin Herbert PFF passing grades | 2024 season
      • Vs. Blitz: 83.1 (2nd)
      • From Clean Pocket: 92.0 (3rd)
  • The Chargers have continued to be a pass-heavy team since their early-season bye. Assuming the game remains competitive, this is a good spot to attack Herbert’s passing overs/alts.
• As I’ve discussed several times in these notebooks, Ladd McConkey is by far the Chargers’ most productive receiver against man coverage. And New England plays Cover 1 at a top-five rate.
  • Receiving yards per route run versus man coverage among Chargers’ top WRs
  • McConkey runs more than 70% of his routes from the slot.
    • The Patriots’ top cornerback, Christian Gonzalez, has lined up in the slot on only 19% of his coverage snaps this season. He might kick in to face McConkey on key downs but is unlikely to be a mainstay there.
    • The Patriots’ starting slot cornerback, Marcus Jones, missed last week’s game and hasn’t practiced through Wednesday. New England moved Jonathan Jones to the slot, which weakened the other outside spot opposite Gonzalez.
  • Any Herbert alts I bet will likely be tied to McConkey receiving overs/alts (line set at 70.5).
• There’s a chance that the Chargers get running back J.K. Dobbins back for the first time since Week 12 (limited practices on Tuesday and Wednesday).
  • The Patriots have been more vulnerable to the run game than is typical from a New England defense (24th in EPA allowed per run play), and we’ve seen running backs like James Cook, Joe Mixon, James Conner and Kyren Williams all have efficient days (more than 5.5 yards per carry) on low volume.
  • It’s worth waiting to see what the rushing lines are for Dobbins, but I’ll likely stay away from overs, given that Los Angeles might ease him back in after his time off due to injury.
• The Chargers’ run defense has looked vulnerable in recent weeks, including against teams that haven’t had much success running the ball.
  • The Chargers rank 26th in EPA allowed per run play over their past five games.
  • The Patriots are a big gap-scheme rushing offense, and Los Angeles has allowed 4.6 yards per carry on gap-scheme runs this year (21st in NFL).
  • The Patriots want to protect Drake Maye behind a bad offensive line and run the ball when they’re able to. This is a spot where I have some interest in Rhamondre Stevenson running into light boxes, with his line set at only 42.5 yards. He is averaging 5.2 yards per carry over his past three games.
• The Patriots’ passing offense has also been much more efficient against two-high coverage shells than single-high coverage shells since Maye took over in Week 6.
  • Patriots’ EPA per pass play rank by coverage shell
    • Single-high: 26th
    • Two-high: 7th
  • The Chargers play two-high at the third-highest rate in the NFL (54%).
• Since Maye took over at quarterback in Week 6, the Patriots are a top-10 team in red-zone pass rate. If we’re sold on New England being able to move the ball and get into the red zone, Maye going over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+188) becomes interesting.
• I think this game has sneaky back-and-forth potential, considering the recent form of the Chargers’ defense. That gives me more conviction in my favorite angle in the game (Herbert/McConkey overs).

Angles I like: Over 43.5, Justin Herbert-to-Ladd McConkey SGPs, Rhamondre Stevenson rushing yards overs, Drake Maye over 1.5 passing touchdowns

DENVER BRONCOS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS (BENGALS -3, 49.5 TOTAL)

• This is one of the games of the week in terms of playoff implications. Cincinnati needs to win out (with help) to have a chance at clinching the No. 7 seed, and Denver can clinch a playoff berth with a victory on Saturday.
• The reason that a team like the Bills, who look likely to get the No. 2 seed, will be rooting for a Bengals loss, is that Cincinnati can keep up with any opponent with the way their offense is moving the ball.
  • Most average yards per play | 2024 season
    • Bengals with Tee Higgins on the field: 6.5
    • Ravens: 6.4
    • Lions: 6.0
    • Packers: 6.0
• It looks like the Broncos should get Riley Moss back at cornerback for this game, which is noteworthy because they’ve shifted stylistically with him out of the lineup.
  • Broncos’ man coverage rate
    • Weeks 1-11: 36% (fifth highest)
    • Weeks 12-16: 24% (21st)
      • Denver has turned to more two-high over this stretch (27th in two-high rate in Weeks 1-11, ninth since Week 12)
  • It’s not necessarily right to assume that the Broncos will go back to their base man coverage and single-high rates with Moss returning.
    • The Bengals have seen two-high on 53% of their offensive snaps (second highest). Denver might stick with it in this matchup against Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
• The style of coverage doesn’t do much to change my interest in Burrow. The Bengals have passed the ball at the highest rate in the NFL in neutral situations, and Burrow has the second-highest PFF passing grade in the NFL against two-high shells.
  • Chase and Higgins would get more vertical one-on-one shots outside against single-high, but they can produce in any matchup.
• The key matchup will be Ja’Marr Chase versus Patrick Surtain.
  • Chase is capable of beating any matchup, but I’ll avoid his duel against Surtain, who hasn’t given up more than 39 receiving yards in a game this season and enters this week at No. 1 in PFF’s advanced coverage grading among cornerbacks.
    • Chase has 285 snaps in the slot this season, and I imagine Cincinnati will move him there to get him away from Surtain. But it’s a bad enough matchup that I’ll look elsewhere, given that Burrow is comfortable spreading the wealth.
      • Higgins has a slightly higher target rate than Chase when on the field.
• If the Broncos do try to take away Chase with Surtain, I have an interest in receiving overs for the other core pieces of the Bengals’ passing offense (Higgins and Gesicki).
  • The Broncos have allowed 595 receiving yards to running backs this year (sixth most in NFL).
• There’s a good chance the Bengals will get Orlando Brown Jr. (out since Week 14) and Amarius Mims (left Week 16 game) back from injury this week, which is important against a Broncos defense ranked second in quick-pressure rate in 2024.
• On the other side of the ball, the Bengals’ defense has been the reason they’re below .500 on the season. The unit has been slightly better since the bye week, but that has been against an underwhelming slate of opposing offenses (Steelers, Cowboys, Titans and Dorian Thompson-Robinson-led Browns).
• Despite that improvement in recent weeks, the Bengals have still allowed the most yards after the catch per reception of any defense in the NFL since their Week 12 bye.
  • Most YAC/REC allowed since Week 13
    • Bengals: 6.9
    • Bears: 6.8
    • Jaguars: 6.7
  • The Broncos are one of the biggest screen teams in the NFL (top five in screen rate) and rank third in yards after the catch per reception (6.7) over the past five weeks.
    • Denver has made a concerted effort to get the ball in Marvin Mims’ hands on offense, sending him 18 targets over the past five games. He is averaging 19.3 yards after the catch per reception on those targets thanks to several long catches on swing passes out of the backfield and his 90-plus-yard touchdown on a seam against Cleveland in Week 13.
      • With Mims’ receiving yardage line set at 24.5, I’ll be taking a chance on another long run-after-the-catch play after he played a season-high 30 snaps last week.
• Denver’s backfield gets murkier with Jaleel McLaughlin likely returning from injury and it becoming a three-headed unit again (Javonte Williams and Audric Estime).
  • The lines will likely be low enough in a soft rushing matchup against Cincinnati that if you can guess who will get the hot hand, there will be value on the over. But I’ll most likely be staying away because I don’t have a great read on the situation.

Angles I like: Bengals -3, Chase Brown receiving overs, Ja’Marr Chase receiving unders, Joe Burrow-to-non-Chase SGPs (Higgins, Gesicki, Brown), Marvin Mims receiving overs

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ LOS ANGELES RAMS (RAMS -6.5, 47.5 TOTAL)

• The first meeting between these two teams was in Week 2 — a game the Cardinals dominated, 41-10, but it was against a depleted Rams offense.
• If the Rams can have success on the ground, they’re going to run the ball often as one of the top teams in run rate over expected in the past five weeks.
  • We saw this last week against the Jets, as Kyren Williams ran for 122 yards on 23 carries. Williams has 112 carries over the past five weeks, ranking behind only Saquon Barkley.
    • He has one of the more secure rushing volume roles in the NFL, and the Cardinals have allowed 4.5 yards per carry on designed runs this season (sixth highest in NFL).
    • There’s not much value on alts, with Williams’ rushing yardage line set at 92.5, but this is a spot where I lean toward his over. The Rams come in as 6.5-point favorites in a soft rushing matchup.
• Stafford has some of the bigger clean-versus-pressured splits in the NFL, and the Cardinals have struggled to generate consistent pressure all season.
  • Stafford PFF passing grade ranks | 2024 season
    • Clean pocket: fifth
    • Pressured: 32nd
  • The Cardinals rank just 25th in pressure rate on the season — though they place 15th over the past five weeks at 15th, but that’s in large part because of how often they’re blitzing (46% blitz rate since Week 12 is third highest in NFL).
    • Stafford has been one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL at beating the blitz this year. The Rams rank sixth in EPA per pass play versus the blitz.
  • This matchup sets up well for Stafford on paper, but I’m worried enough about the volume that I lean toward the under on his passing yardage line in the mid-to-high 230s.
    • Stafford has averaged just 25 attempts per game across the past four weeks, which means he would need to average more than 9 yards per attempt to clear his yardage total if he’s sitting around 25 attempts again.
    • I’ll have some interest in under 30.5 attempts at +100 on DraftKings.
• Another component to the Stafford volume conversation is that the Rams’ defense has been allowing long, sustained drives all season, and that’s been even more true the past five weeks.
  • Most plays allowed per drive since Week 12
    • Jets: 7.3
    • Rams: 7.2
    • Saints: 7.2
    • Chargers: 7.2
• The Rams have allowed 4.6 yards per run play over the past five weeks (third most), and the Cardinals have been one of the league’s more efficient rushing offenses (sixth in EPA per run play).
  • James Conner hurt his knee in Week 16 but has been able to get in limited practices this week and could be good to go for Saturday. Even with that knee injury, Conner has rushed 15-plus times for at least 5.0 yards per carry in each of the past three weeks.
  • My initial feel for this game is that both teams will lean on the run game and string together some longer drives that chew clock, which should play to under 47.5.
• Murray had his best games of the season against this Rams defense in Week 2 (17-of-21 passing, 266 yards, three touchdowns, zero interceptions, five carries for 59 yards), and I do have more interest in him at his lines than Stafford.
  • The Cardinals are the NFL’s best team with a sizeable lead, ranking first in EPA per play when leading by seven-plus points, so I like pairing player prop overs for the Cardinals with their moneyline or alt spreads as favorites.
• It’s been a disappointing rookie season for Marvin Harrison Jr., but opposing offenses have had success all season targeting outside receivers against the Rams.
  • Highest passer rating allowed on outside WR targets
    • Falcons: 115.8
    • Rams: 113.6
    • Giants: 109.1
  • Harrison caught four passes in the first meeting for 130 yards and two touchdowns. He’s been inherently high variance with his role in this offense (with more lows than highs), but this feels like a good week to take a shot on him connecting on one or two of his downfield targets with a receiving line set right around 50 yards.

Angles I like: Under 47.5, Matthew Stafford passing unders, Kyren Williams rushing overs, SGPs around the Cardinals winning (Kyler Murray, James Conner and Marvin Harrison Jr. overs)