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Welcome to PFF’s weekly midweek market update.
This article will explain the factors that drive line movements in betting markets, helping you assess whether a change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences.
Injury, weather conditions and public pick releases can all affect line movement. Click here for a deeper explanation of what we aim to achieve with this article.
Click below to jump to a game:
HOU@KC | WAS@DET | LAR@PHI | BAL@BUF
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs
| Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | KC -8 | KC -8 |
| Total | 41.5 | 41.5 |
Spread: While the consensus line remains at 8, movement has been observed at some sportsbooks, with numbers climbing to 8.5 and even 9.
Total: The total has hovered around the opening number of 41.5, fluctuating half a point in both directions. So far, no sportsbook has ventured below 41 or above 42.
Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions
| Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | DET -8.5 | DET -9 |
| Total | 55.5 | 55.5 |
Spread: After little movement early, the Lions briefly reached a 10-point favorite on Tuesday morning before dropping back down. The market now splits between 9 and 9.5.
Total: The total initially dipped to 54.5 before fluctuating between 54.5 and 55. In the last 24 hours, it has returned to the opening 55.5, though some books still list 55.
Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles
| Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | PHI -6 | PHI -6 |
| Total | 43.5 | 44 |
Spread: The line has moved in the Eagles’ favor, with some books pushing them to -6.5. A move to -7 seems unlikely, with -6 being the likely closing number.
Total: After climbing to 45 early, the total has dropped to 44. While there has been some fluctuation around this number, the market now seems settled.
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills
| Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | BAL -1 | BAL -1 |
| Total | 51.5 | 51.5 |
Spread: Baltimore opens as a slight road favorite against Buffalo, following dominant wild-card wins by both teams. The line has seen little movement, though some books have taken the Ravens to -1.5.
Total: Like the spread, the total has remained relatively steady. Set 4 points higher than the Week 4 matchup, the market is now split between 51 and 51.5, reflecting both teams’ offensive momentum late in the season.
