NFL Conference Championship Round: Key to victory for the Washington Commanders, Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills

Philadelphia Eagles: Run the ball with multiple tight ends on the field

The Washington Commanders defense essentially lives in nickel formation – five defensive backs – lining up in nickel on 81.1% of its plays this season, which ranks second to only the Eagles, who have been in nickel on 81.3% of its snaps. This is true even when the Washington defense is facing multiple tight ends. In fact, the Commanders match 12 (one running back and two tight ends) and 13 (one running back and three tight ends) personnel with nickel at an even higher rate — 84.7% of their snaps, which ranks second only to the Buffalo Bills. 

However, this approach also leaves the Washington defense vulnerable to runs, as it has a lighter defense on the field against multiple tight ends. The Commanders defense faced 187 run plays against 12 and 13 personnel, including the playoffs, and has allowed 0.07 EPA per play on these, the third highest in the NFL this season. Furthermore, the Commanders allowed a positive EPA per play on 46% of these run plays, the NFL’s second-highest rate. 

This approach would not be foreign to the Eagles offense, as it ranked fourth in the regular season with 283 run plays out of 12 and 13 personnel, which ranked fourth in the NFL. Furthermore, the Eagles’ 1,089 rushing yards ranked fifth while their 0.05 EPA per play ranked sixth in the league on these runs. However, on their 33 such runs in the postseason, they were even more efficient as they averaged 0.07 EPA per play on those in their games against the Green Bay Packers and the Los Angeles Rams.

Washington Commanders: Keep the game close and let Jayden Daniels win it for you

While this is not necessarily a concrete plan for how to attack the Eagles defense or slow down Philadelphia’s offense, the Commanders have plenty of experience in keeping a game close and then seeing their rookie quarterback take matters into his own hands to win the game.

No team has been more efficient in the latter parts of games than the Commanders so far this season. Including the playoffs, the Commanders offense has averaged 0.24 EPA per play in the last five minutes of the fourth quarters, which leads all offenses by a significant margin.

This is largely due to Daniels, who has been lethal in clutch situations this season. Last week, we highlighted how effective he has been in the red zone, but overall, he can switch to another gear in the last five minutes of regulation, not only in the red zone. He has an 89.4 PFF passing grade in these situations, which ranks second in the NFL to only Lamar Jackson, while 650 passing yards in the last five minutes of the fourth quarter led all quarterbacks in the regular season. His six touchdown passes were also the most while his six big–time throws were tied for the lead. Finally, Daniels’s 110.7 passer rating on these plays ranked fourth in the NFL in the regular season, while his 118.8 passer rating in these situations in the postseason ranks second among playoff quarterbacks.

Kansas City Chiefs: Attack the underneath areas in the middle of the field

Attacking the middle of the field is something the Chiefs have become quite good at over the years, especially when we are talking about the underneath areas. In fact, the Chiefs attempted 151 pass plays inside the numbers and within nine yards of the line of scrimmage. This ranked tied for 11th in the regular season; however, the 69 first downs they picked up were tied for second. Furthermore, these plays yielded positive EPA for Kansas City on 69.5% of its plays, the third highest in the NFL.

Consequently, quarterback Patrick Mahomes has also been very effective when targeting the middle of the field with these underneath passes. His 89.0 PFF passing grade ranked third among 46 qualifying quarterbacks on these plays in the regular season. Mahomes also took very good care of the football on these plays, as none of his 147 pass attempts were categorized as turnover-worthy passes. 

While the Bills’ defense doesn’t have a lot of weaknesses, this approach could pay dividends for the Chiefs offense. The Bills defense allowed a first down or a touchdown on 39.3% of such pass attempts, the second-highest in the league during the regular season. Similarly, the 0.45 EPA per play the Bills allowed to these underneath areas in the middle of the field were the second most by a defense, behind only the Tennessee Titans. Unfortunately for the Bills, the Chiefs are very good at exploiting this weakness.

Buffalo Bills: Drop eight defenders in coverage

It is very difficult to find weaknesses on this Kansas City team, both on offense and on defense. However, one area that can give the Chiefs offense and Patrick Mahomes trouble is when they are facing just three pass-rushers while eight defenders drop back in coverage. Whereas the Chiefs offense averages 0.11 EPA per play on plays when it is facing four or more pass-rushers – which ranks eighth in the NFL – its EPA per play drops to -0.03 when it faces three or fewer pass-rushers, which is only 16th in the league this season. Similarly, Mahomes has earned an 82.0 PFF passing grade when facing four or more pass-rushers, which ranks eighth among 38 qualifying quarterbacks. However, he ranks only 31st with a 52.0 PFF passing grade on plays when three or fewer defenders are after him. 

Mahomes has faced 30 such plays so far this season, tied for seventh most. However, the four sacks he has taken on these plays are tied for the second most, suggesting that plays with three pass rushers are turning into sacks at a higher rate with Mahomes than with other quarterbacks. Furthermore, Kansas City’s quarterback averages only 3.6 yards per attempt on these plays, just 31st in the NFL.

The Bills are not shy to drop eight defenders in coverage, as they have done so 35 times this season, the eighth most in the NFL. In addition, they allowed a positive EPA on only 34.3% of these plays, the NFL’s ninth-best rate in 2024. Obviously, the Bills cannot use this approach too often, but if sprinkled in well and called at the right time, it can decide the game in Buffalo’s favor.