NFL Conference Championship Games Betting Notebook

I’ve been putting together notes for every game that Judah Fortgang and I touch on during the betting episode of the PFF NFL Show each week, and I’ve since extended that to game-by-game betting notes for the full slate each week.

The idea is to put my research and thoughts onto paper in a quick-hitting, bulleted format to help myself work through what bets I want to place each week. Hopefully, you’re able to get similar betting value from this article as you work through your decision-making process. 

Each game will include data-driven and contextual notes for both sides of the ball with an “Angles I Like” summary at the end that quickly summarizes how I’m most likely to bet the game from spreads, totals and player props perspectives.

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (EAGLES -6, 47.5 TOTAL)

• Washington and Philadelphia split the season-long series, with the Eagles winning 26-18 in Week 11 and Jayden Daniels mounting a 36-33 comeback win for the Commanders in Week 16 (Jalen Hurts left the game early with a concussion).
  • Washington won that second contest despite turning the ball over five times.
• The formula for beating the Eagles seems to be taking away their run game and forcing Jalen Hurts to win through the air. As Saquon Barkley’s numbers indicate, that’s much easier said than done.
  • Across two postseason games, the Eagles’ rushing offense has been significantly more productive than their passing offense.
    • Eagles average yards per play in postseason
      • Pass: 3.9 (second lowest) 
      • Run: 6.6 (second highest)
• Part of the issue with leaning on a “take away the Eagles’ run game” strategy is that just one mistake could equal a 70-yard Barkley touchdown.
  • Most TD runs of 20+ yards (including postseason) since 2006
    • Saquon Barkley (2024): 9
      • Three in two games against Washington
    • Chris Johnson (2009): 8
    • Adrian Peterson (2007): 6
    • DeAngelo Williams (2008): 6
• Barkley is averaging the most yards before contact per run of any running back in the NFL (2.5), and the Commanders are the only defense in the NFL allowing more than 2 yards before contact per designed rush (2.1).
  • Barkley’s line continues to sit at a ridiculous number, but it’s warranted. This is a great matchup, and Philadelphia will likely continue to lean on a run game that’s been significantly more productive than its passing game.
    • I won’t be betting Barkley’s over or under straight up, but I am interested in pairing the over with the Commanders’ moneyline for inverse correlation in single-game parlays. We saw last week that a home-run hitter like Barkley (Jahmyr Gibbs) can rip off explosives in a losing effort. Plus, the Eagles are unlikely to get into a situation where they’ll turn away from the run.
• The Commanders were a relatively big man coverage and blitzing team in the regular season, but both of those numbers have declined in the playoffs.
  • Regular Season
    • 27% man coverage (13th) | 21% vs. Eagles
    • 39% blitz rate (fifth) | 52% vs. Eagles
  • Postseason
    • 21% man coverage (second lowest)
    • 22% blitz rate (second lowest)
• Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown both have big production splits that favor man coverage.
  • Hurts passing | 2024 season
    • Vs. man: 9.6 YPA, 127.8 passer rating
    • Vs. zone: 7.4 YPA, 95.5 passer rating
  • Brown receiving | 2024 season
    • Vs. man: 37% target rate, 3.89 YPRR
    • Vs. zone: 21% target rate, 2.19 YPRR
• Hurts has struggled against blitzes with zone behind it, which aim to take advantage of his poor pressure response without giving one-on-ones to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. I expect Hurts to see quite a bit of that in this matchup.
  • Hurts vs. zone blitz
    • Last in PFF passing grade
    • Second-most sacks taken of any quarterback
    • Eagles rank 22nd out of 32 offenses in yards per dropback
• That all points to a situation where I shouldn’t be too interested in the Eagles’ passing offense (especially after getting burned on Hurts/Brown overs last week and knowing that they want to put Hurts in as few positions as possible to make mistakes), but the concentration of targets in the Week 16 loss makes think about Hurts/Brown/Smith overs at depressed lines.
  • Brown (15 targets) and Smith (seven targets) accounted for 22 of the Eagles’ 24 total targets in Week 16 against Washington — granted, with Kenny Pickett at quarterback for most of the game.
    • Goedert was out in Week 16, and he has been the Eagles’ leading receiver (103 yards) through two postseason games.
• It sounds like the Eagles plan to have Hurts available for the NFC Championship game, but I’m worried about his knee injury being an issue for the offense limiting his impact as a designed rusher and his ability to avoid sacks when he’s holding onto the football in the pocket (like we saw against the Rams last week).
• Linebacker Nakobe Dean‘s injury is a significant blow to the Eagles’ run defense. Dean was PFF’s 13th-highest-graded run-defending linebacker in the NFL this season.
  • Kyren Williams (19 carries for 106 yards) and Josh Jacobs (18 carries for 81 yards) have both had some level of success against a good Philadelphia run defense this postseason, particularly since Dean went down in the wild-card round.
  • Brian Robinson Jr. wasn’t able to do anything against the Buccaneers (10 carries for 16 yards), but he had a strong showing against Detroit, with 15 carries for 71 yards and two touchdowns.
    • I like Robinson’s overs at less than 40 yards and have some interest in Robinson’s rushing alt overs, particularly in single-game parlay builds, implying Washington covers/wins and the Eagles’ offense struggles to move the ball with Hurts potentially limited by his knee injury.
    • Robinson also benefits from Daniels working off him on read options, and Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio could prioritize keeping the ball out of Daniels’ hands.
• As for Daniels, this is a difficult matchup against Fangio and the Eagles’ pass defense, but he is one of the more matchup-proof quarterbacks in the NFL with the way he’s able to handle quick pressure and perfect coverage.
  • Unlike last week, where I liked the matchup outside for Terry McLaurin and Dyami Brown, I’m more interested in unders for McLaurin in tough matchups on the outside against Quinyon Mitchell and Darius Slay.
  • For Washington’s passing game, I have the most interest in Austin Ekeler and Olamide Zaccheaus.
    • Ekeler tallied eight catches for 89 receiving yards in the first meeting against Philadelphia and missed the second contest. He’s been a key part of the Commanders’ offense in the postseason, both as a runner and a pass catcher (eight targets on 34 routes). Washington got both him and Robinson on the field together a fair amount over the past two weeks.
    • Zaccheaus remains the primary slot wide receiver, and as I discussed last week, Philadelphia ranks in the bottom half of the NFL in slot receptions allowed.
      • Zaccheaus was a key part of Washington’s comeback effort in Week 16 (five catches for 70 yards and two touchdowns).
    • Both Ekeler and Zaccheaus have receiving yardage lines under 30. I like their overs.
• Daniels’ rushing yardage line is getting to the point in the mid-50s where I don’t have much interest in the over, but I am also not eager to bet the under.
  • Daniels has certainly had timely runs this postseason, but he has just 87 rushing yards on 29 carries. He is clearly emphasizing avoiding contact and has left yards on the table in an attempt to get to the sideline untouched.
  • I much prefer Daniels over 10.5 rushing attempts to over about 55 yards.
• The Eagles have continued to ride great defense and an elite run game formula to this point, but with Daniels excelling as of late and there being enough concerns about the Eagles’ pass game (coupled with Hurts potentially being limited by the knee injury), I’ll be on Washington again this week.

Angles I like: Commanders +6 (and moneyline), Brian Robinson Jr. rushing overs (anytime TD also good value at almost +200), Saquon Barkley overs paired with Commanders moneyline in single-game parlay, Terry McLaurin receiving under, Austin Ekeler/Olamide Zaccheaus receiving overs, Commanders defense sack props

BUFFALO BILLS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (CHIEFS -1.5, 47.5 TOTAL)

• Despite not playing in the same division, the Bills and Chiefs are very familiar with each other after meeting in the postseason multiple times across the past five years.
  • The Bills were the only team to beat the Chiefs’ starting lineup this season, a 30-21 victory in Week 11.
  • Both teams averaged about 5 yards per play (5.0 for Kansas City and 5.2 for Buffalo), but the Bills ran nearly 20 more plays than the Chiefs because:
    • They were efficient on third down (9-for-15)
    • They won the turnover battle 2-1.
• Buffalo’s rushing offense has been one of the more impressive units this postseason. The Bills have a 50% rushing success rate (percentage of plays generating positive expected points added) through wins over the Broncos and Ravens despite them boasting the top two defenses in the NFL in rushing success rate allowed during the regular season.
  • The Bills’ regular-season rushing success rate was 44%, ranking sixth in the NFL.
  • Lowest rushing success rate allowed | 2024 regular season
    • Broncos: 34%
    • Ravens: 34%
    • Browns: 35%
    • Chiefs: 35%
      • This is another difficult matchup on paper, but I have some interest in James Cook’s rushing overs since I’m anticipating the Bills will want to keep their offense on schedule and out of third-and-long situations where Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo can send creative pressures after Josh Allen.
      • The Chiefs are also coming off a game where they struggled to limit a Houston rushing attack that has been non-existent for much of the season.
• Josh Allen took six carries with the Bills needing 2 yards or less for a first down last week against Baltimore, and he converted four times. Buffalo will once again lean on him in those short-yardage situations.
  • I prefer betting on Allen going over 9.5 rushing attempts instead of his rushing yardage over, given that short-yardage element.
• The Chiefs have allowed a higher percentage of their receptions to slot receivers than any other defense in the NFL. With Jaylen Watson back on the outside with Trent McDuffie, Chamarri Conner is clearly the weak link among their three starting “cornerbacks.”
  • Shakir has been the Bills’ top target in the passing game all season, and he recorded eight catches for 70 yards in the first meeting between these teams. I’ll again target his overs for this game.
• Buffalo’s defense doesn’t present the same challenges for the Chiefs that Houston’s did.
  • Highest defensive success rate allowed since Week 14
  • Over that stretch, Buffalo’s pass defense (29th in expected points allowed per play) has been significantly worse than the team’s run defense (10th), which suits Kansas City’s style of play.
    • Chiefs: second in pass rate in neutral game scripts in 2024
    • Chiefs: 29th in average yards per run play in 2024
• It should be a high-volume passing game for Patrick Mahomes, who I’m expecting to have a better performance than he did in Week 11 against Buffalo (23-of-33, 196 yards, three touchdowns, two interceptions).
  • The Bills tend to funnel targets to the middle of the field (29th in passing yards allowed on throws between the numbers).
  • Travis Kelce is typically Mahomes’ top target in that portion of the field, and he’s appeared to find a new gear again in the postseason, but the Bills did a good job of taking him away in Week 11 (two catches for 8 yards).
    • I tend to side with Kelce’s unders now that his receiving yardage line is around 70 yards. I have to imagine the Bills’ top goal will be to take him away, and we’ve seen them do that once this season, although Kelce has also put up 75-plus yards in three straight postseason games against Buffalo.
• If the Bills are limiting Kelce by keeping multiple eyes on him, that creates more opportunity for the wide receivers. Cornerback Christian Benford is in concussion protocol and Taylor Rapp is out with a hip injury, so Buffalo’s secondary won’t be at full strength.
  • Marquise Brown is interesting to me again, with a receiving yardage line in the low 30s. He ran a season-high 23 routes against Houston despite getting shut out of the receptions column in a difficult matchup against Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter.
  • Xavier Worthy also has the potential for a high-volume slot role if the Bills’ primary goal is to take away Kelce.
    • Worthy led Kansas City with 17 routes run from the slot last week, and Buffalo allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to slot receivers of any defense in the regular season.
    • Worthy leads all Chiefs receivers with 41 targets since Week 14. He has become a larger part of their passing offense as the season has progressed.
• In a high-leverage game, these are two offenses that I expect to put up strong performances and two defenses that haven’t been performing at an elite level for much of the year. My favorite spread/total bet in this game is the over at 47.5.

Angles I like: Over 47.5, James Cook rushing overs and anytime TD, Josh Allen over 9.5 rush attempts at +100 or better, Khalil Shakir receiving overs, Travis Kelce receiving unders, Patrick Mahomes to Xavier Worthy/Marquise Brown single-game parlays