Leistikow’s early thoughts on Iowa football’s Music City Bowl ‘rematch’ with Missouri

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(This story was updated to accurately reflect the most current information.)

After finally making its long-teased Music City Bowl debut in 2022, the Iowa football team is headed back to Broadway Street.

For the third time in five years, the Hawkeyes have been selected for the TransPerfect Music City Bowl. But this will mark only their second game in Nashville, because their scheduled 2020 game against Missouri was canceled due to positive COVID-19 tests in the Tigers’ program.

Now, the Music City will try Iowa-Mizzou again. It’s a “rematch” between Iowa (8-4) and 19th-ranked Missouri (9-3) − Kirk Ferentz vs. Eli Drinkwitz − in a Dec. 30 kickoff at 1:30 p.m. CT at Nissan Stadium, outdoor home to the NFL’s Tennessee Titans.

Iowa and Missouri have met 13 times but only once since 1910, a memorable 27-24 Iowa win in the 2010 Insight Bowl on Micah Hyde’s late-game interception-return touchdown.

The Hawkeyes twice seemed ticketed for the Reliaquest Bowl in Tampa, Florida, but twice had that rug pulled from under them − first by Michigan, then by Clemson.

Had Ohio State beaten Michigan as a 19-point favorite on Nov. 30, Iowa would’ve been practically a lock for a return to Tampa for the first time since 2018.

And then once it became plausible that Alabama would backdoor its way into the College Football Playoff, Iowa-to-Tampa looked probable again. But after a Clemson win over a plucky SMU team in the Atlantic Coast Conference championship game, Alabama was left out.

With surging No. 15 South Carolina and its excited fan base becoming available, the Citrus grabbed the Gamecocks for a matchup against 9-3 Illinois. And then the Reliaquest stumbled into a matchup too impossible to pass up: 9-3 Alabama vs. 7-5 Michigan.

So, Iowa got shuffled to the Music City.

“We still consider going to a bowl game a really significant accomplishment for our football team,” Ferentz said of his 22nd bowl bid in 26 years as Iowa’s head coach.

Here are some of the most notable early story lines for the Hawkeyes’ 13th and final game of the 2024 season.

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Quarterback curiosity once again

Iowa’s 21-0 win against Kentucky in 2022 marked the only time Joey Labas ever took a snap at quarterback for the Hawkeyes. Labas started that game and was a solid 14-for-24 for 139 yards with a touchdown pass to Luke Lachey with no turnovers. Iowa’s other two touchdowns in that game came on interception-return touchdowns by Xavier Nwankpa (who was making his first career start) and Cooper DeJean.

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Labas was in the spotlight because starting quarterback Spencer Petras had suffered a serious shoulder injury in Iowa’s season finale vs. Nebraska, and backup Alex Padilla chose to transfer. That left Iowa with only Labas, a redshirt freshman who had never taken a college snap, and never-used Carson May as the only scholarship quarterbacks. Labas never played the following season despite the struggles of backup Deacon Hill, and then he transferred to Central Michigan.

This time, logic would suggest that Brendan Sullivan will return as the primary signal caller in Nashville to make his third start as a Hawkeye. But that’s far from a sure thing. Any chance of a Cade McNamara return to the lineup was washed away when the sixth-year senior announced he would enter the transfer portal last week.

Sullivan severely injured his ankle Nov. 8 at UCLA and hasn’t played since, while walk-on Jackson Stratton took the reins for back-to-back wins over Maryland (29-13) and Nebraska (13-10). Sullivan should be full speed by Dec. 30, according to Ferentz, but Iowa likely will have added a transfer-portal quarterback between now and then. If the Hawkeyes were to grab a quarterback who has a good chance to be the 2025 starter, it can’t be ruled out that Sullivan would enter the portal and find a different home for his last year of eligibility. In that case, Iowa likely would turn to Stratton once again with Marco Lainez (presumably good to go after left-thumb surgery in mid-November) as a possible backup option.

It also can’t be ruled out that Stratton, who is 21-for-35 for 219 yards with no interceptions in his 10 quarters of action, beats out Sullivan for the starting nod in Nashville.

“We’ll let them both practice and see what happens,” Ferentz said. “If I had to guess right now, I’d say Brendan will be the starter, but we’ll see. We’ll let them both work.”

Either way, there almost certainly will be some Iowa quarterback developments in the coming three weeks with the portal officially opening Monday.

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Video: Jaziun Patterson on his role in Iowa’s running back room

Jaziun Patterson discusses a variety fo topcis ahead of Iowa’s matchup with UCLA.

A parting compliment for Kaleb Johnson and a new-look RB room

Ferentz won’t ever say it publicly, but it’s a pretty safe bet that the decision of cornerback Jermari Harris to not play in Iowa’s final two regular-season games gnawed at him a bit. Harris has decided to prepare for the NFL Draft instead. Part of the reason Ferentz was frosty about that is because he knows that outside forces (aka agents) are “really aggressive” with players making stay-or-go NFL decisions in-season.

To that point, on Sunday he was extremely understanding of Kaleb Johnson’s decision to enter the NFL Draft but grateful that he first finished the regular season. Johnson last week became Iowa’s first Big Ten running back of the year (an award that started in 2011) and likely will be a first-team all-American.

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“I really want to compliment Kaleb and how he’s done things,” Ferentz said. “I don’t mind telling you if somewhere in the last month he walked in and said he’s done, I would have been disappointed and I would have felt bad for him. Because it would have been a terrible decision. But at the same time, I would have understood because of the world we’re living in. The people on the outside are really being aggressive right now.

“The fact that he did finish out the season the way he did and basically – I’m not saying he won the game for us last Friday night (vs. Nebraska), but (his 72-yard touchdown) was a huge component. I think he’s handled it really well, done a good job with his teammates. And to me, if you’re not going to finish it out, and in this case he’s not, he did it in a way that’s really admirable.”

And now without Johnson, the focus of Iowa’s running game goes to where the season started: Kamari Moulton.

Moulton, if you’ll recall, was the Hawkeyes’ No. 1 back in the opener against Illinois State and Johnson was No. 3 as he served a first-half suspension for a team violation. But Johnson roared to the lead job in the second half of that game (11 carries, 119 yards, two touchdowns) and never looked back, assembling 1,725 scrimmage yards and a school-record 23 TDs in a season.

Moulton, a redshirt freshman, exploded for a career-high 114 yards on 12 carries Nov. 23 at Maryland, taking some of the workload off Johnson (35 carries, 164 yards) in that game. But expect a time-share with Jaziun Patterson in Nashville, with this game also giving Iowa a chance to mix in a true freshman like Brevin Doll or Xavier Williams.

“Both those guys have done a really nice job in practice. They’ve grown immensely since August,” Ferentz said of the freshmen. “A couple weeks ago, I (asked), ‘How do you think these guys would do if we put them in a game?’ Everybody gave the same answer. We’re all seeing it the same way. It’ll be a committee. I don’t know if it’ll be two guys or four guys, but we … really like the guys we have.”

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The defense can deliver a finishing statement

Despite some of the struggles that Iowa experienced this season on that side of the ball, the Hawkeyes have a chance to once again have a top-10 national defense.

As of Sunday morning, Iowa had climbed to No. 9 nationally in scoring defense, at 17.1 points per game. The Hawkeyes went 4-1 over their final five games, allowing in succession 14, 10, 20, 13 and 10 points. And that first 14 was off defensive and special-teams touchdowns by Northwestern, so the Hawkeyes defense has allowed only six offensive touchdowns in its last five games.

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Iowa ranked fourth in scoring defense in 2023 (14.8 points per game), second in 2022 (13.3), 13th in 2021 (19.2), sixth in 2020 (16.0), fifth in 2019 (14.0) and 11th in 2018 (17.8).

The Hawkeyes rank No. 16 in total defense entering the bowl game, at 313.6 yards per game. By the way, Missouri has the No. 22 total defense in college football (319.3 average).

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Video: Drew Stevens talks kick that delivered victory vs. Nebraska

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90-win decade, Ferentz-Hayes record still in play

It’s not the College Football Playoff or even a 10-win season, but Ferentz will steer his team’s focus on a nine-win season. From 2005 through 2014, Iowa managed just two of those – in 2008 and 2009. But since the start of the 2015 season, Iowa has won at least nine games five times – with a shortened COVID-19 pandemic season of 6-2 mixed in there, too. This would be a chance for six nine-win seasons in the last decade under Ferentz (2015, ’18, ’19, ’21, ’23), who with a Nashville victory can tie Woody Hayes’ Big Ten career record of 205 coaching wins.

Ferentz owns a 204-123 record at Iowa (.624 winning percentage), with an 89-36 record (.712) in the past decade. A 90-win decade would be pretty significant for the Hawkeye program.

Missouri will certainly be a challenging but beatable opponent. Opt-outs are always a bowl-game curiosity. Already Missouri standout wide receiver Luther Burden Jr. has said he will skip the bowl game to prepare for the NFL Draft.

The Tigers’ only three losses this season were at Texas A&M (41-10), at Alabama (34-0) and at South Carolina (34-30). Four of their five Southeastern Conference wins were by a touchdown or less. All in all, the Hawkeyes should get a formidable but winnable challenge in their return to Nashville.

Missouri was an early 2½-point favorite as of Sunday night, with an over/under points total set at 43½.

Johnson, McNamara and Harris are Iowa’s only opt-outs expected at this point.

“Anything can happen here in these next couple weeks,” Ferentz said. “But I think our roster is pretty well-settled right now. Hopefully, no surprises here. … I anticipate the team staying together, getting ready for a good ballgame.”

Hawkeyes columnist Chad Leistikow has served for 30 years with The Des Moines Register and USA TODAY Sports Network. Chad is the 2023 INA Iowa Sports Columnist of the Year and NSMA Co-Sportswriter of the Year in Iowa. Join Chad’s text-message group (free for subscribers) at HawkCentral.com/HawkeyesTexts. Follow @ChadLeistikow on X.

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