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- Defense has won championships? Since 2006, the team with the better defense has won 11 times, while the team with the better offense has won just seven times. Notably, the five highest-ranked Super Bowl offenses since 2006 all lost the Super Bowl.
- Trouble for the Eagles? The 2024 Eagles rank among the strongest Super Bowl teams relative to their competition in the same season. However, it’s worth noting that the Chiefs have already beaten three similarly dominant teams on football’s biggest stage: the 2019 49ers, the 2022 Eagles and the 2023 49ers.
Estimated Reading Time: 7 minutes
After an up-and-down season featuring momentum swings in many of their games, the Kansas City Chiefs now stand on the brink of history. They are set to compete for the first three-peat of the Super Bowl era and their fourth championship in six years.
Yet, despite their success, one question has been asked far more often than expected for a team playing on football’s biggest stage: How good are the Chiefs, really?
The Chiefs went 15-1 in meaningful games, tying the 2015 Carolina Panthers for the best regular-season record since the 2007 New England Patriots went undefeated. However, even when excluding their Week 18 loss to the Denver Broncos, Kansas City finished with a point differential of just +97. That pales in comparison to the 2015 Panthers, who outscored opponents by 192 points.
In 2024 alone, six teams posted a point differential of +100 or better, raising legitimate questions about how dominant this Chiefs team truly is. So, how do the 2024 Chiefs stack up — not just against their past Super Bowl teams, but also every other Super Bowl team since 2006?
To find out, we have used the same data-driven approach as our regular-season team tiers, adjusting EPA per play on offense and EPA allowed per play on defense for predictive power, downweighting high-leverage plays and accounting for opponent strength.
The final ratings are normalized for each season, measuring how far above (or below) the league average each Super Bowl team was in its respective year.
