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- Dalton Kincaid disappointed fantasy managers in 2024, but optimism abounds for 2025: Kincaid recorded one of the worst catchable target rates this past season, which should regress positively in his favor next season and help boost his fantasy production.
- Mark Andrews benefited greatly from Lamar Jackson’s elite passing season, though he also deserves credit: Andrews had a great combination of catchable targets and high-end efficiency to allow for a TE6 finish in 2024.
Estimated Reading Time: 9 minutes
A lot goes into a player’s fantasy production each season, but for pass catchers, one of the most important aspects is their quarterback’s accuracy.
So, we’ll dive deeper into targets that PFF has deemed catchable — and the tight ends who benefited the most and least in fantasy (Weeks 1-17) from those catchable targets — while utilizing each player’s individual receiving metrics to project how much they performed above and below expectations.
Click here to read the wide receiver version.
The formula to determine each player’s expected fantasy points is as follows:
- Expected catchable targets = Positional average catchable target rate (82%) multiplied by actual targets
- Expected fantasy points = PPR scoring for adjusted receptions, adjusted yards and adjusted touchdowns
- Adjusted receptions = Player’s catchable reception rate multiplied by expected catchable targets
- Adjusted yards = Player’s yards per reception multiplied by adjusted receptions
- Adjusted touchdowns = Player’s touchdowns per catchable target rate multiplied by expected catchable targets
- Snap threshold to be included = Minimum of 100 routes and 10 targets
A wide receiver’s catchable target rate has mostly proven not to be a stable metric in recent years (average correlation of just 0.2738 since 2022), so this exercise’s value is in adding the context of potential positive or negative regression for some of the top over- and under-achievers next season.
