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(Bloomberg) — The dollar surged in early Asian trading and stocks were primed for losses after US President Donald Trump carried out his threat to impose general levies of 25% on Canada and Mexico and 10% on Chinese goods from Tuesday, sparking vows of retaliation.
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The US currency advanced against most of its major peers, sending the Canadian dollar to its weakest since 2003, the euro to its lowest since November 2022 and the Mexican peso to an almost three-year low. Equity futures in Australia and Japan fell on Friday after Trump pledged to impose the tariffs.
The rapid escalation in trade tensions is fueling a flight to haven assets as uncertainty mounts over everything from inflation and central bank policy easing to Trump’s next move. While Trump has pledged sweeping trade levies since his election win in November to combat issues such as illegal immigration and illicit drugs, global stocks had rallied more than 3% while the dollar edged lower this year in anticipation tariffs would be delayed or avoided as officials sought to negotiate deals.
“The market needs to structurally and significantly reprice the trade war risk premium” with the announcements at the weekend roughly three times larger than what was envisaged, George Saravelos, head of FX research at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a note to clients. “For Canada and Mexico, we see this trade shock – if sustained – as being far larger in economic magnitude than that of Brexit on the UK and would expect both countries to enter a recession in coming weeks.”
The S&P 500 reversed gains and fell 0.5% following the White House announcement Friday, the dollar climbed against major peers and the yield on 10-year Treasuries rose two basis points. Bitcoin slumped.
Behind the rally in the dollar is the bet that tariffs will fuel inflationary pressures and keep US interest rates elevated, while also hurting foreign economies more than the US and adding to the greenback’s safe-haven lure. Foreign currencies get hurt as American demand declines for costlier imports.
Traders are on alert for big swings in stock markets in sectors that are considered the front lines of any trade war. A UBS Group AG basket of stocks at risk from the proposed tariffs sank almost 4% on Friday on concerns levies would fan inflation and hit bottom lines.
