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Welcome to the first iteration of PFF’s College Football Playoff market update.
This article will explain the factors that drive line movements in betting markets, helping you assess whether a change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences.
If you aren’t familiar, Click here for a deeper explanation of what we aim to achieve each week.
We’ll also provide an update for each bowl game, where market dynamics differ significantly and are largely influenced by transfer portal entries, player opt-outs and coaching changes.
The first round of the playoff is unique as it presents a coveted home-field advantage for the higher seeds.
INDIANA (No. 8) VS NOTRE DAME (No. 5)
| Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | ND -7.5 | ND -7.5 |
| Total | 53.5 | 50.5 |
Spread: There hasn’t been much movement on the spread. After opening at 7.5, a few books briefly moved it to 8, but it was quickly bet back down. Most books currently list it at 7.5.
Total: Within 10 minutes of opening, this total was on the move down and was a full 2 points lower after half an hour of betting. The next day, it dropped another point to where it currently sits at 50.5. There are still a few 51s out there.
National Championship Odds: Indiana +4000 | Notre Dame +700
SMU (No. 10) VS. PENN STATE (No. 4)
| Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | PSU -7.5 | PSU – 8.5 |
| Total | 53.5 | 54 |
Spread: The initial movement favored Penn State, pushing the line to 8.5. Support for SMU at 8.5 caused it to bounce between 8 and 8.5 throughout the week. Ultimately, 8.5 held, and some books are now listing 9.
Total: There’s been slight support for the over, nudging the total up by half a point to 54 at most market-making books. However, 53.5 is still available at some spots.
Buy/Sell: As I outlined here, I’m on Penn State -8 and still like it at its current number of -8.5. I expect the Nittany Lions’ defensive line to take control in this game. I’m also on Penn State -4.5 in the first half, where home-field advantage is at its peak.
National Championship Odds: SMU +4000 | Penn State +500
CLEMSON (No. 16) VS. TEXAS (No. 3)
| Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | TEX -11.5 | TEX -11 |
| Total | 54.5 | 51.5 |
Spread: There’s been plenty of differing opinions on the Round 1 game with the highest spread, as you can still get anywhere between 10.5 and 11.5 widely available in the market. Overall, the market is leaning closer toward the 10.5 side of that equation in favor of Clemson.
Total: This game features another total that slid down a few points from the opener. This was also on the move down shortly after opening. You can still find some 52s at certain books, but I don’t expect them to last much longer.
National Championship Odds: Clemson +6000 | Texas +360
TENNESSEE (No. 7) VS. OHIO STATE (No. 6)
| Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | OSU -7.5 | OSU -7.5 |
| Total | 47.5 | 47 |
Spread: There has been gradual support on Tennessee, increasing the juice on the 7.5. We’re now seeing a few books move to the key number of 7.
Total: We’ve seen a slight move down to 47 from the opening 47.5. A few books have taken it down to 46.5.
Buy/Sell: In case you missed it, I’m on Tennesse +7.5 in a game where I’m backing my thesis that the SEC is currently underrated in the market relative to the Big Ten.
National Championship Odds: Tennessee +2500 | Ohio State +500
