Buying, selling narratives for NFL conference championship games

• Do the Eagles need Jalen Hurts to take over as a passer? Philadelphia has proven talented enough to overcome modest passing production this season, and that may need to be the case again against the Commanders.
• Josh Allen’s legacy won’t take a hit if the Bills fall short: Although Allen has been unable to overcome the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs, another negative result is more likely to fall on the defense than him.
• 2025 NFL Draft season is here: Try PFF’s best-in-class Mock Draft Simulator and learn about 2025’s top prospects while trading and drafting for your favorite NFL team.

Estimated Reading Time: 9 minutes

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Opinions will fly about the four teams playing in the NFL’s conference championship games before they even start — and, of course, after they are over. As such, narratives hang over each team. Some are statistically supported, while others can be proven false.

Here, we’ll buy or sell one narrative for each of the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders with supporting data to bolster the argument.

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Kansas City Chiefs

• Narrative: This year’s Chiefs are more vulnerable than the past two seasons’ editions.
• Buy or Sell: Sell

Most of the thought process behind calling the Chiefs more “vulnerable” than in the past couple of years is centered on their offense not being as explosive as it used to be, particularly when the team still had wide receiver Tyreek Hill. 

While Kansas City does sit as a bottom-seven team in explosive run and pass rates, that doesn’t mean the offense is devoid of production. The Chiefs rank 14th in team PFF offensive grade, but if we exclude their Week 18 game when they sat their starters, they rank 10th.

They ran the ball more explosively last season, but they were still a middling team when it came to creating big plays. As such, Patrick Mahomes has adjusted to a conservative style of play to produce the third-lowest average depth of target in the NFL in 2023 and 2024.

It may sound simple, but the Chiefs have one goal on offense: get first downs by any means necessary. They run the ninth-most offensive plays per game while converting at the 10th-highest rate and scoring at the ninth-highest rate. They may not boast the elite production of a Detroit or a Buffalo, but they are still roughly the 10th-best offense in the NFL with a quarterback who has mastered the art of situational football.

Patrick Mahomes’ Career PFF Grades

What gives the team balance is a defense that ranks second, behind Philadelphia, in PFF overall grade and doesn’t have a fatal flaw that opponents can repeatedly attack. The Chiefs and the Eagles are the only two teams in the top 10 in PFF run-defense grade, PFF pass-rush grade and PFF coverage grade.

Again, if we exclude Week 18 against the Broncos, Kansas City allows fewer than 18 points per game. Of course, the only team that found a way to score at least 30 points against their starters was Buffalo in Week 11. They’ll confront the task of stopping Josh Allen again in the AFC Championship game, but if anyone is up to it, it’s defensive mastermind Steve Spagnuolo and his talented unit.

The Chiefs may not be as flashy offensively as they used to be, but they still find ways to win.

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Buffalo Bills

• Narrative: This AFC Championship game will define Josh Allen’s legacy.
• Buy or Sell: Sell

This game is understandably being billed as the biggest game of Josh Allen’s career. After an MVP-caliber regular-season campaign, he has led the Bills back to the AFC Championship game for the first time since 2020. He is undoubtedly one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks, in the midst of a fifth consecutive season with a 90.0-plus PFF overall grade — never before done by a signal-caller in the PFF era (since 2006).

There are three ways this game can go. Buffalo could win and earn its first Super Bowl berth in more than 30 years; they could lose despite a good effort from Allen, which has happened in the postseason before; or they could lose because of a poor outing from Allen.

At this point, the third option seems highly unlikely. Allen’s 92.4 PFF overall grade this season is the highest of his career. He also owns a 2.3% turnover-worthy play rate, easily the best clip of his career, and has committed just three turnover-worthy plays since Week 9. It would be shocking to see him fold after playing with such command of the offense.

So, what happened in Allen’s previous postseason losses, particularly the three at the hands of Kansas City? In the 2020 AFC Championship game, the Bills jumped out to a 9-0 lead before the Chiefs scored on their next six drives and won 38-24. Allen and the Bills simply weren’t ready in their first appearance. He finished that game with a 56.5 PFF overall grade.

In the 2021 divisional round, Allen and Patrick Mahomes engaged in a classic shootout, in which Allen gave the Bills a lead with 13 seconds left in regulation. Mahomes somehow found a way to tie that game and eventually helped the Chiefs win in overtime. Allen finished with a 92.2 PFF overall grade.

In last year’s divisional round, Allen produced a modest passing stat line but still earned a solid 79.6 PFF overall grade while accounting for three touchdowns. With Buffalo down by 3 points, he drove the offense into field-goal range, but Tyler Bass missed a 44-yard kick and the contest was effectively over.

A common thread in each of those three games was the underperformance of the Bills’ defense. The unit owns a 44.7 PFF overall grade and a paltry 32.9 PFF coverage grade across the three outings. Buffalo simply hasn’t been able to figure out Mahomes when it matters most. 

There should be far more concern about a defense that ranks 31st in PFF coverage grade this season than about the All-Pro quarterback.

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Washington Commanders

• Narrative: Jayden Daniels is the fifth-best quarterback in the NFL
• Buy or Sell: Buy (if we’re talking about only 2024)

Regardless of the order one may put them in, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are widely considered the four best quarterbacks in the NFL. Mahomes ranks sixth in PFF overall grade this year but gets the benefit of the doubt because of what he has accomplished in his career. Jackson, Allen and Burrow comprise the top three this season, in that order.

The Washington Commanders are in the NFC Championship game for the first time in more than 30 years, and Jayden Daniels is the biggest reason. His dual-threat abilities and exceptional poise have led to him placing fifth in PFF overall grade, behind the aforementioned trio and Justin Herbert.

Daniels also sits in fifth place in PFF’s wins above replacement metric, further accentuating his value. Overall, the data indicates this season’s fifth-best quarterback is Jayden Daniels or Justin Herbert.

Highest-Graded Quarterbacks through NFL Divisional Round

While Herbert had a fantastic season, Daniels’ case centers on bolstering a still-flawed offense. Daniels has created explosive plays all season while carrying the league’s third-lowest turnover-worthy play rate (1.7%). He ranks second, behind Lamar Jackson, in several rushing metrics among quarterbacks. More importantly, Daniels’ legs have helped the Commanders rank fifth in the league in explosive run rate.

Perhaps the most impressive part of Daniels’ performance is that he doesn’t have anything close to an elite supporting cast around him. His offensive line ranks 26th in PFF overall grade and has dealt with injuries in the latter half of the season. Terry McLaurin was the team’s only player to finish the regular season with at least 700 receiving yards. And Washington’s defense is tied for third to last in PFF grade.

Daniels has managed to win 14 of his first 19 NFL games, including two in the postseason, by producing arguably the best season ever by a rookie quarterback. At least through his first year, he has proven himself as one of the league’s elite players.

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Philadelphia Eagles

• Narrative: Jalen Hurts needs to play significantly better for the Eagles to win this week.
• Buy or Sell: Sell (for one more week)

Jalen Hurts hasn’t statistically lit the world on fire this season as a passer. His 65.6 PFF passing grade ranks 27th out of 32 passers who have taken at least 300 dropbacks, and he has made just one big-time throw in his past eight starts. He’s still displayed his value as a runner, with 15 touchdowns and an elite 90.3 PFF rushing grade, but the Eagles have seemingly won at times despite their passing game.

So, will Philadelphia need that passing attack, specifically Hurts, to perform significantly better to win a rubber match against Washington? Not necessarily.

Hurts actually finished only one game against the Commanders this season, an Eagles victory in Week 11. Philadelphia leaned on Saquon Barkley’s 146 rushing yards and a stout defensive effort to earn the win. Hurts earned a modest 66.0 PFF passing grade that night while adding a rushing touchdown.

He started the Eagles’ Week 16 loss to Washington but departed the game early with a concussion. Even with Kenny Pickett playing the rest of the way, it took an incredible game-winning drive from Daniels for the Commanders to come away with a narrow, shootout victory. 

Perhaps Daniels and the Commanders will continue their offensive hot streak, but the Eagles still have the league’s highest-graded defense. They also still have Barkley, who amassed 348 yards across the first two matchups between these teams.

Those assets bring about two clear advantages for Philadelphia. First, Washington ranks 29th in the NFL in PFF run-defense grade and 30th in yards per carry allowed. Second, the Eagles allow the lowest percentage of explosive pass plays in the league and the Commanders rank 27th in creating them as an offense.

While it would be beneficial for Hurts to have one of his best games of the season in this spot, the Eagles are good enough throughout the rest of their roster to beat a still-flawed Washington team.