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Jefferies analyst Edison Lee downgraded the investment bank’s rating on Apple’s (AAPL) stock to Underperform and decreased his price target by 13% to $200.75 on Monday. Loop Capital also downgraded Apple’s stock from Buy to Hold, with a revised price target of $230, down from $275.
In an investor note, Lee said he expects Apple to report lower-than-expected results for its December quarter and a miss on expectations for the second quarter on weak iPhone sales and a lack of interest in AI among consumers.
Shares of Apple fell as much as 3.7% midday on Tuesday. The stock is up 16% over the last 12 months. Big Tech rivals Meta (META) and Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) are up some 36% and 30%, respectively, over the last year, while Microsoft (MSFT) is up just 3.5%. The broader S&P 500 has climbed 20% in the same period.
According to Lee, iPhone sales in China fell between 15% and 20% year over year. Apple is contending with a number of headwinds in the region, including the continued ascendence of local offerings from Huawei and Xiaomi and cautious consumer spending amidst a slower economic backdrop.
Apple isn’t just dealing with trouble in China. Overall iPhone market share fell roughly 1% year over year in Q4 to 23%, according to estimates by Canalys and IDC. That’s despite the fact that smartphone shipments rose 3%, Canalys reports.
Jefferies forecasts that iPhone revenue will decline 0.4% year over year for the first quarter, while total Apple sales will grow 2.8%, lower than the firm’s prior estimate of 4.6%.
Part of Apple’s issue, Lee contends, is that the company’s big push into AI isn’t panning out as investors had hoped. Apple Intelligence, Apple’s artificial intelligence platform for the iPhone, iPad, and Mac, was expected to kick off a sales supercycle. But if IDC and Canalys estimates prove correct, it will throw cold water on the AI sales boost.
Apple began rolling out Apple Intelligence in batches in October. It’s a risky move for Apple, which generally debuts its latest and greatest products and services at one time via big, splashy launch events. That makes it difficult for customers to know when the platform will feature all of the capabilities Apple initially promised when it debuted Apple Intelligence in June 2024.
AI smartphones and their counterpart AI PCs are struggling to gain traction despite a massive sales push from tech giants ranging from Apple and Google to Microsoft and Intel.
Apple’s iPhone is its most important product, and China is among its most important sales regions. In 2024, the iPhone accounted for $201.1 billion of Apple’s $391 billion in total revenue. The company’s second-largest business segment, its Services division, brought in $96.1 billion.
